2024 3M Open preview: Field, odds, venue, weather conditions and more

The 2024 3M Open is set to tee off at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, marking the fifth year of this relatively new but already iconic event on the PGA Tour. The course, a par 71 spanning 7,431 yards, is known for its challenging water hazards and generous fairways, making it a thrilling venue for both players and spectators.

Scheduled to take place from July 25-28, the 3M Open boasts a substantial purse of $8.3 million, with the winner taking home just shy of $1.5 million. This event plays a critical role in the race towards the FedEx Cup playoffs, offering 500 crucial FedEx Cup points to the champion.

TPC Twin Cities, designed by Arnold Palmer with consultation from Tom Lehman, has quickly earned a reputation for its demanding layout. Nearly every hole features some form of water hazard, which challenges golfers to be both strategic and precise. The course’s design, with its wide fairways and strategically placed bunkers, demands a balanced game of power and finesse. Since its debut on the PGA Tour in 2019, TPC Twin Cities has seen dramatic finishes and has become a favorite stop for many players.

The Field for the 3M Open

As the field gears up for the 3M Open, all eyes will be on the star-studded lineup that includes some of the biggest names in golf. Headlining the tournament are world-ranked top 30 players such as Sahith Theegala, Tony Finau, Akshay Bhatia, and Sam Burns. Tony Finau, the 2022 champion, returns to TPC Twin Cities hoping to reclaim his title.

This year’s 3M Open also features a mix of seasoned veterans and rising stars. Major winners such as Justin Rose, Zach Johnson, Gary Woodland, and Keegan Bradley have all committed to playing, adding depth and experience to the field. Additionally, players with local ties, including former Gopher Erik van Rooyen and Minnesota’s own Troy Merritt, will be looking to leverage their familiarity with the course to gain an edge.

Defending champion Lee Hodges is back to defend his title after a stellar performance last year, where he secured his first PGA Tour victory. Hodges has continued to show promise with a strong finish at the PGA Championship in May.

Reflecting on his win, Hodges noted, “To keep making birdies and keep there mentally the whole time was just amazing. There are so many good guys in these kinds of tournaments.” His comments underscore the competitive nature of the 3M Open, where young talent and experienced pros alike vie for glory on one of the tour’s most challenging courses.

Weather and Course Condition

The course conditions for this year’s 3M Open are expected to be pristine, with the grounds crew working tirelessly to ensure that TPC Twin Cities is in peak shape. The fairways and greens have been meticulously maintained, offering a lush, green carpet that will reward precise shots.

Weather forecasts predict warm temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s, with minimal chances of rain, creating ideal playing conditions. Gentle breezes are expected, which should add an extra layer of complexity to shot selection without overly disrupting play.

Expert and Sleeper Picks

Expert Picks:

Tony Finau (11-1): Tony Finau is poised for a strong performance at this year’s 3M Open, despite a recent setback at the Open Championship. The weather played a significant role in his missed cut, but Finau’s history at TPC Twin Cities suggests he’s ready to bounce back. In his five appearances at this venue, Finau has notched three top-10 finishes, including a victory in 2022 and a seventh-place finish last year. This season, he ranks 17th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, showcasing his ability to leverage his power effectively. 

Billy Horschel (30-1): Billy Horschel, fresh off an impressive runner-up finish at the Open Championship, might face a challenging week at TPC Twin Cities. The mental and physical demands of contending at Royal Troon could lead to a letdown. Horschel, an eight-time PGA Tour winner, committed to the 3M Open long before his stellar performance in Scotland, and maintaining that level of play back-to-back weeks is a tall order. Horschel’s consistency and experience could still make him a contender, but the likelihood of an “exhale” after such an intense competition is high. 

Sleeper Picks:

Neal Shipley (75-1): Neal Shipley has emerged as a promising talent following an impressive amateur showing at the Masters this season. Since then, he has competed in five PGA Tour-sanctioned events, making the cut in four of them. His performance includes a notable tie for sixth place at the ISCO Championship and a tie for 20th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Shipley’s strength lies in his driving ability; he is exceptionally long off the tee, which gives him a significant advantage on courses that require strong Par-5 scoring. This is evident as he scores a Birdie or Better on Par 5s 55% of the time, which is 9% higher than the PGA Tour average. Additionally, Shipley is above average in both overall Birdie Average and Driving Distance. Although still early in his professional career, Shipley’s potential is clear, and the 3M Open could be the venue for his first major victory.

Ben Kohles (170-1): Ben Kohles might be flying under the radar, but his recent form suggests he could be a dark horse at the 3M Open. The 2023 Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year has made eight of his last nine cuts, including four consecutive cuts leading up to this tournament. Despite not being a household name, Kohles has been in serious contention multiple times this season, with a second-place finish at the Byron Nelson and a tie for sixth at the Puerto Rico Open.

Known for his consistency off the tee, Kohles ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy, which will be crucial at TPC Twin Cities. Additionally, he is proficient at finding the greens, ranking 55th in Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage this year. His ability to play traditional holes effectively, especially Par-4s, and his strong approach shots from within 150 yards, make him a solid contender for this week’s tournament.