Golf betting model has bad news for Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy has won every other Major except the Masters. The green jacket has eluded him. He’s been in search of it to complete a career grand slam for a long time. He’s also in the middle of an 11-year Major drought. He came up just short in the 2024 US Open of breaking that streak, but he remains in search of both a green jacket and another Major win.

In just a few weeks, McIlroy will have the chance to end both nightmares. With a win at Augusta in April, McIlroy would end his losing streak, become one of the few golfers to win a career slam, and restore his name as a legend in golf. Unfortunately, one pretty accurate betting model doesn’t think he will.

Rory McIlroy predicted to struggle at the Masters

It’s early, but the Masters odds are already out. Unsurprisingly, per CBS Sports, Scottie Scheffler, last year’s champion and the world number one, has the best odds at +470. Not far behind, though, is Rory McIlroy. Unfortunately, one betting model thinks McIlroy won’t pay out on those odds.

The model predicts McIlroy will not even make the top five and will still be in search of the ever-elusive green jacket. The Irishman has struggled at Augusta lately. He’s finished T22 or worse in three of his past four starts there, and he’s missed the cut twice recently.

The 35-year-old hasn’t even broken 70 in 11 of his past 12 rounds at the illustrious course, so he’s going to have to undo a lot of previous struggles to even have a chance of winning. He will also have to deal with a lot of pressure.

McIlroy is trying to do something special, and he’s also trying to reverse the sting of losing that has compounded over the last decade. He hasn’t won a Major since 2014, and it’s clear that it weighs on him. He missed a chance to win one at the 2024 US Open when two bogeys on the final three holes let Bryson DeChambeau steal the win.

If McIlroy is playing well, there will undoubtedly be even more self-induced pressure because of what he’s trying to do. It would carry a lot more stress than the Masters usually does, and it could play a big role in how he finishes.