Justin Thomas 2024: Is JT still on a slump?

Justin Thomas had one of the worst rounds of his career on moving day at the Valspar Championship, carding one birdie, seven bogeys and a double bogey for a 79. The statistic is even worse when you consider that Thomas went from tied for the lead after 36 holes to tied for 66 after 54.

This performance has reignited the debate about the slump that some believe Justin Thomas has been in since last season. Those who believe this claim that Thomas has not come out of the slump and there are those who claim that the double major champion is not an elite player.

Is there any truth in that? Let’s see:

Justin Thomas’ problems started sometime in the 2022 – 2023 season. Before that, everything was smooth sailing for him, as he had 15 wins (including two majors) in eight seasons on the PGA Tour (2015 – 2022). Even in the first 10 tournaments of 2022 – 2023, he had seven top 25 finishes, including three top 10s, with only one missed cut (The Masters).

The next 11 tournaments decided his season. During this period, he missed five cuts, his only Top 10 came at the Travelers Championship (T9), and he also lost his chance to make the FedEx Cup playoffs (he finished 71st in the rankings). In those two months (April – June 2023) he really hit rock bottom.

Then he played only one official tournament on the PGA Tour (Fortinet Championship), where he finished 5th. He also played the (unofficial) Hero World Challenge where he finished 3rd.
His overall season results were 21 official tournaments played, 15 cuts made, four top 10s, seven other top 25s and a 4th place finish (WM Phoenix Open) as his best result. His season earnings were $3.6 million.

In other words, when we talk about Justin Thomas “being in a slump”, we really mean “being in a slump considering his quality”. If we value him as an average player, his season wasn’t bad at all, don’t you think?

Justin Thomas 2024: The slump continues?

The 2024 season is off to a good but not great start for Justin Thomas. If you look at his overall results, you see a player who is moving in the right direction. Thomas has played in six tournaments (prior to the Valspar Championship) with four cuts, all top 15s, including two top 10s. His best finish to date came in his season debut (T3 at The American Express).

However, we can’t help but notice that the two cuts he missed came in two of the strongest tournaments he’s played: The Genesis Invitational and The Players Championship. At Riviera, the 10-stroke rule was in effect, and yet Justin Thomas could not make it through the weekend.

In contrast, Thomas had a great performance in two other high-profile events, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (T6, 13 under) and the Arnold Palmer Invitational (T12, 3 under).

Digging a little deeper into Thomas’ performance, we see that he has played 19 rounds, 11 of them with scores in the 60s. Prior to Saturday’s 79, his worst score of the season was a 74 (second round at The Players). This 79 is his worst round since the 81 he shot at the 2023 US Open nine months ago.

My conclusion is that Justin Thomas’ results are good, but not brilliant. Whether it’s a slump or not is anyone’s guess.

What do you think?