Nelly Korda’s Game Could Get Even Hotter – Expert Report

Nelly Korda’s recent performances on the LPGA Tour have been nothing short of spectacular, propelling her to the top of the Rolex Women’s World Golf Rankings and etching her name in the annals of golf history alongside legends like Nancy Lopez and Annika Sorenstam. Her dominance on the course has been fueled by a combination of elite approach play, balanced brilliance, and exceptional performance around the greens.

Korda’s journey to becoming a dominant force in women’s professional golf has been marked by a significant improvement in her approach play. Her precision with irons has seen a remarkable surge in 2024, with a substantial increase in strokes gained per round.

This improvement has translated into higher green-in-regulation rates, especially following missed fairways, where Korda outshines her peers. Additionally, her prowess with scoring clubs and proximity to the hole have created numerous birdie opportunities, further solidifying her position at the top of the leaderboard.

Golf analyst Justin Ray’s analysis of Nelly Korda’s game  using KPMG Performance Insights, provides valuable data into the areas where she can further refine her skills.

Nelly Korda: Room for Improvement?

Perhaps the most remarkable thing about Nelly Korda current stretch (5 wins in her last 5 starts, leading the tour in almost every relevant stat in the process), is that she has the potential to improve on what she’s been doing during her historic win streak.

Among qualified players this season, Nelly Korda has one of the lowest putt-make percentages from five to 10 feet on the LPGA Tour. The overall make rate from that range this season is 56.7%, but Nelly is playing form 40.4%. Despite the relative struggles from five to 10 feet, Korda is still gaining nearly half a stroke per round on the greens this year (+0.49), almost doubling her average from a season ago (+0.26).

The Data Behind Her Success

The biggest reason for Nelly Korda’s uptick in results has come from more precise iron play. She is averaging more than four times the strokes gained with her approach play this season compared to last, at +0.90 per round.

Last season, Nelly Korda had positive strokes gained approach in 56 percent of her overall rounds played. This season, that rate is up to 67 percent. When Nelly is in the fairway, she goes on to hit the green 83.7% of the time. Her advantage over her peers following a missed fairway is even more significant. Following a missed fairway on a par 4 or 5, Korda is finding the putting surface in regulation at a 61.5% clip. Her peers are doing that just 48.5% of the time.

Nelly Korda is especially lethal this season with her scoring clubs. From 100 to 125 yards away, she hits the ball on average two feet closer to the hole than her competition. Overall, her average proximity has improved by more than a foot and a half from all distances compared to last season.

Korda has long been one of the game’s premier drivers of the golf ball. She led the LPGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee in 2022 and has followed that up with top-10 rankings in 2023 (sixth) and 2024 (second). Coupling excellent performance off the tee with elite iron play is a rare occurrence, even for the best players in the world.

Nelly Korda is one of just two players who currently ranks in the top 15 on the LPGA Tour in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach (Haeran Ryu is the other). Statistically, she’s the best player around the greens on the LPGA Tour in 2024, as well. Nelly is gaining 0.84 strokes around the green per round this season, the most of any player. Her average of 2.33 strokes gained tee-to-green per round is more than half a stroke better than any other player.

A Historic Streak

When a player is putting together a historic streak like the one Korda is on, it can be easy to lose sight of a simple fact: winning a golf tournament is extremely difficult. KPMG Performance Insights has introduced AI-powered predictive analytics this season on the LPGA Tour, providing broadcasters with pre-tournament and live probabilities of player results and other key numbers like the projected cut line.

Those insights tell us that entering each of the last four events Korda has won, she had between an 8 and 10.1% probability of going on to victory. The varying tournament conditions and course setups during Korda’s streak add another layer to its brilliance. All five wins came in different states, with putting surfaces ranging from Poa annua to Bermuda. Each tournament had a different runner-up, different weather conditions, and one of the wins even had an unusual format.

Golf fans are witnessing history this season, and KPMG Performance Insights aid in telling the story behind Nelly Korda’s incredible play. If Nelly Korda is able to overcome the problems she has had with her putting, it is almost certain that her dominance on the LPGA Tour will become one of legends.